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Author Topic: 2101/02 MPI after Sim 10  (Read 54 times)

BullsGM

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2101/02 MPI after Sim 10
« on: January 13, 2020, 09:17:22 AM »





This final sim is going to be a doozy. There is so much potential for seeding madness to occur just in these last 15 days of the season. In the East, the Bulls have clinched the 1-seed already and the Wizards would have to lose out with either the Heat or Pistons winning out for them to not be the 2-seed. The Heat and Pistons are locked into a battle for the 3-seed with the losing getting the 5-seed. While the 5-seed will still get home court advantage in round 1 vs the Atlantic winner, avoiding the Bulls in round 2 is the real prize. Orlando, barring a horrible sim, will be the 6-seed and Atlanta will be the 7th. The fun in the East is between the Atlantic leaders, Celtics and Raptors, and the Bucks. The winner of the Atlantic will be the 4-seed, the 2nd place will then be competing with the Bucks for the 8-seed.

Tie Breaking Scenarios in the East:
Heat v. Pistons - Heat own 3-1 H2H tie breaker
Celtics v. Raptors - Raptors currently up 2-1 with 1 game left. If Boston wins that, divisional record will be used. Celtics have a 12-3 to 10-4 advantage currently there. Odds would favor Celtics winning division if they beat the Raptors this sim.
Raptors v. Bucks - Raptors have 3-1 H2H tie breaker
Cetlics v. Bucks - 2-2 H2H so conference record would be tie breaker. Bucks have a half game lead in conf record and face an easier schedule this sim.

Out West, the Thunder and Wolves are once again locked into a battle for the division and the 1-seed. The gap has increased significantly over the 3-seed as well as the Grizzlies are projected to win 59-games now and finish 6 games behind the leaders. With the Kings locked into the 4-seed, the Grizzlies and Rockets are in the same boat as the Heat and Pistons in the East. The winner gets the 3-seed, loser gets the 5-seed. While the final 3-teams are all but locked in for the West (barring a 4 game collapse by one of those team and a surge from the Suns), the seeds are completely fluid. The Clippers and Pelicans are projected to tie with 50-wins and the Nuggets at 49. The Nuggets face the easiest schedule but the majority of those games are on the road. While the Clippers get all but 2 games in LA.

Tie Breaking Scenarios in the West:
Thunder v. Wolves - 2-2 H2H which would then go to divisional record which the Thunder have a 1 game lead on. The final divisional game for the Wolves is in Portland while the Thunder get the Jazz at home. Advantage Thunder. The Wolves have a 1-game lead currently but face a brutal schedule to close the year while the Thunder have the 9th easiest. My guess would be Thunder getting the 1-seed again.
Grizzlies v. Rockets - Rockets have a 2-1 H2H with one game left in Memphis. If Memphis wins that, they would be in driver seat despite currently being a half game back on the Rockets in divisional record. The Rockets only face the Grizzlies in division this sim while the Grizzlies also play the Spurs in San Antonio.
Clippers v. Pelicans - Clippers have 3-1 H2H
Clippers v. Nuggets - 1-1 with 1 game left in LA. Winner of that game gets tie breaker
Nuggets v. Pelicans - Pelicans have 3-1 H2H
Clippers v. Pelicans v. Nuggets - If all three tie, if the Clippers beat the Nuggets it will go Clippers-Pelicans-Nuggets 6-8 respectively. If the Nuggets beat the Clippers it will go Pelicans-Nuggets-Clippers.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2020, 09:22:49 AM by BullsGM »
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BullsGM

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Re: 2101/02 MPI after Sim 10
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2020, 09:22:54 AM »

250 TBD
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